{"id":3966,"date":"2023-11-27T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-27T01:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/94hoya.com\/?p=3966"},"modified":"2023-11-20T10:26:43","modified_gmt":"2023-11-20T02:26:43","slug":"%e5%a8%9b%e6%a8%82%e5%9f%8e%e8%b3%ad%e5%8d%9a%e5%bf%83%e7%90%86%e5%ad%b8%ef%bc%9a%e5%bd%a9%e7%a5%a8%e9%81%8a%e6%88%b2%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%843%e5%80%8b%e9%81%b8%e8%99%9f%e5%bf%83%e7%90%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/94hoya.com\/%e5%a8%9b%e6%a8%82%e5%9f%8e%e8%b3%ad%e5%8d%9a%e5%bf%83%e7%90%86%e5%ad%b8%ef%bc%9a%e5%bd%a9%e7%a5%a8%e9%81%8a%e6%88%b2%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%843%e5%80%8b%e9%81%b8%e8%99%9f%e5%bf%83%e7%90%86\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5a1b\u6a02\u57ce\u8ced\u535a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\uff1a\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\u76843\u500b\u9078\u865f\u5fc3\u7406"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u4e00\u3001\u96a8\u6a5f\u6027\u8207\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

1. \u96a8\u6a5f\u6027\u7684\u672c\u8cea\uff1a
\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u96a8\u6a5f\u6027\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u865f\u78bc\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\u90fd\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u7121\u6cd5\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u662f\u5438\u5f15\u73a9\u5bb6\u53c3\u8207\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u95dc\u9375\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u5275\u9020\u4e86\u5e0c\u671b\u548c\u8208\u596e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\"\u96a8\u6a5f\u6027\u8207\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\"<\/figure>\nThis criterion holds that if decision makers do not know the probabilities of the various states of nature and have no reason to think otherwise, then the states of nature should be considered to be equally likely. On the basis of this supposition, the predictable monetary value for each alternative is calculated and the alternative with the highest expected monetary value is chosen. (\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90<\/a> )<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

2. \u8ced\u535a\u8ff7\u601d\uff1a
\u8a31\u591a\u4eba\u5728\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\u9677\u5165\u8ced\u535a\u8ff7\u601d\uff0c\u8aa4\u4ee5\u70ba\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u4e2d\u734e\u6982\u7387\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u8ff7\u601d\u4f7f\u4eba\u5011\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u6839\u64da\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u865f\u78bc\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u8996\u4e86\u6bcf\u6b21\u62bd\u734e\u90fd\u662f\u7368\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u4e8b\u5be6\u3002

3. \u865f\u78bc\u5206\u4f48\uff1a
\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\u7684\u865f\u78bc\u5206\u4f48\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u96a8\u6a5f\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4eba\u5011\u7d93\u5e38\u8a66\u5716\u627e\u5230\u6a21\u5f0f\u6216\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u884c\u70ba\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4eba\u985e\u5c0b\u627e\u6709\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u5929\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u4e8c\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u56e0\u7d20\u8207\u9078\u865f\u5fc3\u7406<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

1. \u9078\u865f\u7b56\u7565\uff1a
\u73a9\u5bb6\u5728\u9078\u64c7\u865f\u78bc\u6642\u5e38\u5e38\u53d7\u5230\u60c5\u611f\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u7279\u6b8a\u65e5\u671f\u3001\u500b\u4eba\u5e78\u904b\u865f\u78bc\u7b49\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u611f\u9023\u7d50\u4f7f\u5f97\u9078\u865f\u6210\u70ba\u4e00\u7a2e\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u6d3b\u52d5\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e2d\u734e\u6a5f\u6703\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\"\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u56e0\u7d20\u8207\u9078\u865f\u5fc3\u7406\"<\/figure>\nWhen it comes to choosing lottery numbers, everyone has their own preferred method. Some like to analyze past draws to spot any patterns, while others look to the Zodiac for the answers. Of course, no matter how you pick your lottery numbers, the draw is always totally random. While there is no method to guarantee a win (otherwise we\u2019d all be millionaires!) there\u2019s no harm in having one, either. (\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90 <\/a>)<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

2. \u6436\u5148\u611f\uff1a
\u7576\u73a9\u5bb6\u770b\u5230\u5225\u4eba\u4e2d\u734e\u6642\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u7522\u751f\u201c\u6211\u4e5f\u80fd\u4e2d\u201d\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u52a0\u5927\u6295\u5165\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u5fc3\u7406\u73fe\u8c61\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u6436\u5148\u611f\u3002

3. \u8667\u640d\u8ff4\u907f\uff1a
\u7576\u73a9\u5bb6\u5df2\u7d93\u6295\u5165\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u91d1\u9322\u6642\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u7e7c\u7e8c\u53c3\u8207\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u627f\u8a8d\u8667\u640d\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u9019\u6a23\u505a\u4e26\u4e0d\u7406\u667a\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u884c\u70ba\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u4e2d\u7684\u8667\u640d\u8ff4\u907f\u73fe\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5728\u6982\u7387\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7684\u61c9\u7528\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u4e09\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5728\u6982\u7387\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7684\u61c9\u7528<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

1. \u6982\u7387\u5206\u6790\u548c\u671f\u671b\u503c\uff1a
\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u96a8\u6a5f\u6027\u4e0d\u50c5\u50c5\u5f71\u97ff\u73a9\u5bb6\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u53cd\u61c9\uff0c\u9084\u5f71\u97ff\u4ed6\u5011\u5c0d\u6982\u7387\u548c\u671f\u671b\u503c\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u73a9\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u4e2d\u734e\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u9577\u671f\u8667\u640d\u3002

2. \u6559\u80b2\u548c\u5ba3\u50b3\uff1a
\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u904b\u71df\u5546\u901a\u5e38\u5229\u7528\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f86\u8a2d\u8a08\u5ba3\u50b3\u548c\u4fc3\u92b7\u6d3b\u52d5\uff0c\u4ee5\u5438\u5f15\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u73a9\u5bb6\u53c3\u8207\u3002\u9019\u5305\u62ec\u4f7f\u7528\u6210\u529f\u6545\u4e8b\u3001\u5927\u734e\u6578\u64da\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5fc3\u7406\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

4. \u5a1b\u6a02\u57ce<\/a>\u7d50\u8ad6<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u6df1\u53d7\u96a8\u6a5f\u6027\u548c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u5a1b\u6a02\u6d3b\u52d5\u3002\u8ced\u535a\u8ff7\u601d\u3001\u9078\u865f\u5fc3\u7406\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u53cd\u61c9\u548c\u8667\u640d\u8ff4\u907f\u90fd\u5728\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\u626e\u6f14\u91cd\u8981\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u4e86\u89e3\u9019\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u73a9\u5bb6\u66f4\u660e\u667a\u5730\u53c3\u8207\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u4e26\u7406\u89e3\u4e2d\u734e\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u904a\u6232\u904b\u71df\u5546\u4e5f\u5229\u7528\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f86\u5438\u5f15\u73a9\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f7f\u904a\u6232\u66f4\u52a0\u5f15\u4eba\u5165\u52dd\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u73a9\u5bb6\u61c9\u8a72\u59cb\u7d42\u8b39\u8a18\uff0c\u53c3\u8207\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u61c9\u8a72\u4ee5\u5a1b\u6a02\u70ba\u4e3b\uff0c\u4e0d\u61c9\u8a72\u8d85\u51fa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8ca1\u52d9\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80\uff1a21\u4e16\u7d00\u5a1b\u6a02\u57ce\u65b0\u8da8\u52e2\uff1a\u8de8\u5e73\u53f0\u591a\u4eba\u6355\u9b5a\u6a5f\uff0c\u6311\u6230\u9ad8\u5206\u5168\u7403\u7af6\u8cfd\uff01<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u9019\u5834\u5145\u6eff\u8457\u5922\u60f3\u548c\u671f\u671b\u7684\u5192\u96aa\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u5438\u5f15\u8457\u6578\u767e\u842c\u4eba\u5617\u8a66\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u904b\u6c23\u3002\u7576\u4f60\u8cb7\u4e0b\u4e00\u5f35\u5f69\u7968\u6642\uff0c\u4f60\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u4e5f\u66fe\u60f3\u50cf\u904e\u64c1\u6709\u5de8\u984d\u734e\u91d1\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\uff1f\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9019\u5834\u770b\u4f3c\u7d14\u7cb9\u7684\u904b\u6c23\u8003\u9a57\u80cc\u5f8c\uff0c\u96b1\u85cf\u8457\u6578\u5b78\u7684\u5967\u79d8\u548c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u7684\u9b54\u6cd5\u3002\u5a1b\u6a02\u57ce\u5c07\u5e36\u4f60\u8d70\u9032\u9019\u500b\u5145\u6eff\u6a5f\u6703\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u8ff7\u601d\u3001\u9078\u865f\u5fc3\u7406\u4ee5\u53ca\u96a8\u6a5f\u6027\u7684\u795e\u5947\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u63a2\u8a0e\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u7e3d\u80fd\u5982\u6b64\u4ee4\u4eba\u8457\u8ff7\u3002\u6e96\u5099\u597d\u89e3\u958b\u5f69\u7968\u904a\u6232\u7684\u79d8\u5bc6\u4e86\u55ce\uff1f\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u4e00\u8d77\u555f\u7a0b\uff01<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":3969,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,366],"tags":[403,173,82,84,63,399,401,36,402],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/94hoya.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3966"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/94hoya.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/94hoya.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/94hoya.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/94hoya.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3966"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/94hoya.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3966\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/94hoya.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3969"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/94hoya.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3966"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/94hoya.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3966"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/94hoya.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3966"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}